Objects in the mirror….
I get it all the time. “How is the market?” or “Are you ok?”. The answer is the market is different but depending on your needs it can be a great market and “Yes, I am ok”.
I am on a “news fast”. I have to be right now because the news that is reported is so bad that it can affect my attitude and mood if I let it but the truth is that we are going to be ok. The American economy is an anvil that has worn out many hammers and it is going to wear this one out too.
I just looked at the numbers and we are approaching sales of 5 million homes in the US for 2008. It may come in lower but it is above 4.5 million and that should make this the 7th or 8th best year EVER in home sales. The news won’t put it that way but that is the truth.
Interest rates are BELOW 5% and money is available for anyone with decent credit, a job and 3.5% down payment. The news won’t tell you that either. I hate that I have to be what seems like the only one that tells you this stuff but sometimes it feels that way.
Do not let your heart be troubled. Hope is closer than it appears so hang in there and call me if you need me. I am here to help.
Thanks for listening,
Jerry W. Robertson
678-231-1578
All they want is my money!!
Funny way to start out a Christmas greeting but bear with me and it will make sense in a minute.
I had a conversation that started out with “All they want is my money”. It was obvious that Ken struggled with church and Christians in particular. It was one of the times that God gave me words to say and I said them.
I asked Ken if he had a dime. He dug in his pocket and came out with a dime and I asked if he would trade me that dime for the dollar I had in my hand. He said he would and we swapped while the puzzlement on his face grew. “Is that a good deal?” I asked. Of course he said. It was a good deal. “That is all God asks of us”.
You see, I believe that everything I have or have ever gotten comes from God and all he asks in return is that I am willing to give BACK 10%. Ken had never thought of it that way before. Most folks don’t because Christians are not all that consistent about giving back. If we were, the church would never have to ask for money because God’s plan would be working but we don’t do our part. If we did there would be more stories like what I am about to tell you.
I am a part of a church called 12Stone. We are in two campuses. One in Lawrenceville, GA and another in Hamilton Mill, GA and we just did something amazing. We gave $750,000 back to the community. Now I don’t mean that the church as a whole but rather individuals in the church gave back that much to folks that needed it. Our church announced that they would be giving $100 minimum to every family in the church that asked with the specific intent that we would at least match that (or more if we could) and we would as a group look for opportunity to bless someone in the community. It is called “Intentional Acts of Christmas”. Over 2600 families agreed to participate and with the extra that was given to youth groups in the church we as a church contributed $300,000 that was handed out to heads of households one Sunday morning in $100 bills. There are great stories about buying groceries, paying utility bills, buying gifts for children, cars for single moms and lots more but the point is that all of this was done out of one church and I can tell you that even we don’t give back our 10% as a body of believers. Imagine what we could do if we did!!
God does not need our money. If he did he could just take it. We need to give it back for our own good. God knows that and is doing all he can to show us how it benefits us, our church and society in general. Americans are the most generous of people. We help people regardless of their religion, color or other beliefs. If we gave like God asked us to then we would not have the hunger problems we struggle with. Poverty would be a much smaller problem than it is and it would not require taxes to work all this out.
This Christmas please enjoy the gifts and time together with friends and family. Give to someone that has less than you. God gave us the greatest of gifts in Jesus Christ who came and took our place so that we might have life. That is called GRACE. Look for ways to spend your money with compassion and I promise you will get more than you give.
Thanks for listening and MERRY CHRISTMAS!!!
Jerry W. Robertson
4080 Olde Towne Way
www.4080.KWRealtyGA.com is a great 3 Bedroom, 2.5 Bath home with a Master Suite on the main floor. It is in a small community with low maintenance yards and great neighbors. Just off of Peachtree Industrial Blvd at Rodgers Bridge Rd in Duluth, GA is a great place to be for your commute or just to be close to things like the Gwinnett Arena and Convention Center.
1804 Riverlanding Circle
www.1804.KWRealtyGA.com is a wonderful 3 Bedroom, 2 Bath ranch on a well kept lot with trees in the back and a ‘pancake’ flat front yard and driveway. Great if you are done with the ’stairs’, looking to downsize or just want to live in a great house. Beautifully decorated and ready to move into. It is located in Lawrenceville GA 30045.
eth'ics
| 1. | (used with a singular or plural verb ) a system of moral principles: the ethics of a culture. |
| 2. | the rules of conduct recognized in respect to a particular class of human actions or a particular group, culture, etc.: medical ethics; Christian ethics. |
| 3. | moral principles, as of an individual: His ethics forbade betrayal of a confidence. |
| 4. | (usually used with a singular verb) that branch of philosophy dealing with values relating to human conduct, with respect to the rightness and wrongness of certain actions and to the goodness and badness of the motives and ends of such actions. |
Seems we need a lesson. Ethics are something many seem to be lacking and apparently we can’t enforce ethics on someone who doesn’t have any. Even people that we thought had them turn out not to have them. Bernard Madoff is a good example. The news today has him pegged at $50 Billion that he has defrauded people out of and while that number sounds small in the context of what our own government is doing it is really a lot of money. People trusted him and he let them down. Now comes the reaction to this and I guess some of it will be productive. There will be more of “Trust but Verify“. That phrase was used by Ronald Reagan when referring to the former Soviet Union and it has been used by others through history. I think that part will be good.
What won’t be good is the short term reaction by our lawmakers to legislate ethics. That will actually fail and ultimately be very bad for the economy. Their meddling always is and who are they to tell anyone how to behave ethically?
So, what do we do? Well, I would propose we act ethically. Individually we must act ethically. It is pretty simple when you get right down to it. Don’t lie, steal or cheat. That would be a good start. Say what you mean. Do what you say you will do. Those are good second steps.
Instead of looking out for No. 1 I would propose we consider others more important than ourselves. Our church (12Stone) is doing something that can make a difference. Check out www.InspireShareGive.com if you want some ideas. Look for an opportunity to make a difference in someones life instead of getting the new Ipod or whatever you are looking to buy right now. There is NOTHING wrong with having something you want but I would ask you to consider the compassionate use of our collective wealth for a while until we get past this little bump in the road. Trust me, it will make you feel better to focus on someone who has less and actually help them than to focus on yourself.
Thanks for listening,
Jerry W. Robertson
So, where are we??
I already talked about how we got here. Go back and catch up if you need to but I want to discuss where we are. The news says we are in the worst recession ever and it will be worse because it is world wide. I am not sure I agree. Indications show we may be about done and on our way out but it is not has bad as it has been in the past. In 1930 over 1000 banks failed in the US and there was no FDIC to protect deposits. in 2008 so far we have had less than 20 banks fail and no money was lost by consumers in the wake because the FDIC did it’s job. That’s good news!!
There are approximately 76 Million households that own their own homes in the US. 30% of them are paid for free and clear. No mortgage on 30% of the homes in the US. That means that about 52 Million households have a mortgage and over 93% are current on their mortgages Over 97% are NOT in foreclosure. That sounds better than the news is telling us, huh?
Of the 3% that are in foreclosure, over 40% are NOT owner occupied. Those come from the large number of so called investors (I prefer to call them speculators) that bought a second home with intent to flip it or use it as a vacation home / rental. They over leveraged themselves, did not have proper reserves and therefore are in trouble with the mortgage company. Another sobering note is that nationally, about 20% of home owners owe more than the house is worth in today’s market. That is not a great stat but did those folks lose money? Not unless they have to sell right now, they have not. They can continue to live there, make the payment and wait for the market to come back. Remember that article on equity extraction? How many of that 20% took the money and ran? Based on those numbers I would say a good many did so they took their profit early and now have to wait to sell or worse are irresponsible to the commitments they made and will be abandoning their homes and commitments. I am not saying all folks that lose a home are bums and there are times that people have no choice but I would venture to say that is not true in all cases.
I’ll have more later but for now know that the situation is NOT hopeless and that we will work our way out of this. My belief is that we need to grow our economy by doing the right things. Invest, save and make incremental changes in the way we do things. Not gambling on the big win but get our collective heads down, focus and we will win.
As to the housing market, the best thing I can tell you is that “WE ARE HAVING A SALE“. We’ll talk more but prices are down, interest rates are down and there is LOTS of inventory. I know of one deal that is a brand new house that was on the market for $600K a couple of years ago and is now being sold by the bank. I know it is listed for $459K but the agent tells me $375K will get it done and I have it on good authority that the real number is $345K. It is on a golf course and out in the country for a great lifestyle. It is a ranch on a full basement with 5 bedrooms, 4 full baths and a great kitchen. Come check it out here if you are interested or call me. I am doing my best to get this sort of info out to my folks and I suspect someone will snap this one up. Remember, buy low and sell high? Well, prices are low right now so if you are in a place to buy this is a great time.
Thanks for listening,
Jerry W. Robertson
One perspective on 4.5%
Here is an article that I thought was well said. Check out Hillside Lending and see what you think.
Jerry
A little bit of daylight…
Just watching Fox Business News this morning and I heard something from Charles Payne and he told us that investors are starting to get back in the market in anticipation of the expansion that is coming. That is exactly what I see when I look at the reports and data that is out there. He is not saying we are at the bottom but that professional investors (the ones that do this for a living) are getting back in.
Employment is a big deal right now but remember, employment is a LAGGING indicator of the economy. The economy will be getting better long before employment numbers start to show it.
More to come. Thanks for listening,
Jerry W. Robertson
How did we get here?
I guess that is a good question. My opinion is that we run in cycles anyway and we are where we are today because of the cycles. We can do things to tinker with them and delay or accelerate the cycle but it’s coming and we need to be prepared.
We just got a report that we have been in a recession since December 2007. The news is reporting that little factoid from the report published on Monday from the National Bureau of Economic Research. What they don’t tell you is that since 1937 the longest recession was 16 months. If history proves out then we are either near or at the bottom and likely climbing our way out. Every time after one of these recessions we have enjoyed a long period of expansion. Average is about 5 years. In fact, I heard Warren Buffett say that we would be fine in 5 years. Not 5 months but that we will be fine. That is one side of the story you won’t hear elsewhere.
Second, we tinkered with this and violated some basic rules. We allowed people that were not qualified to buy a house get financing and because the prices kept going up due to the artificial expansion we used our houses like piggy banks. We did this largely because of the policy that the interest paid was tax deductible and we spend the money on things we did not need with money we did not have to impress people we did not know. That has stopped and we are paying the price right now.
In 1991 we extracted $71Billion in equity and while that sounds like a big number in 2005 it was $743Billion. Yes, 10 times what we took out in 1991. Most of that money was spend on consumer goods or to pay off debt on credit cards that were used to prop up a lifestyle that could not be justified.
Even with all of that, I want to leave you with this. 2008 is going to be the 7th or 8th best year ever in real estate. Counting total sales, we are going to have a good year. Next time I will dig into that more and tell you about some more GOOD news that you won’t hear elsewhere.
Thanks for listening,
Jerry W. Robertson
The Whole Truth
We are inundated with bad news. That is just the way it is in a market where we are selling ad space based on readership / viewership. That is because we are a people that slow down to see the accident on the side of the road. It is a bit morbid but that is the way most of us are wired even though we don’t like to admit that.
The trouble with that is that if all we hear is bad news we get scared and sometimes make decisions based on partial information and make mistakes. The news is telling us the truth but frankly they are not telling us the whole truth. We find this out when we look at history but it is hard to see in the present which is where we live and make our decisions. I am going to try and help.
Over the next few days I am going to show you more of the whole truth about the housing market, show you how we got here and how we are going to get out of this mess. Actually, it is not all bad news and we are going to get out of this just fine.
Yes, we are in a recession. No, we are not headed for the next great depression. Yes, there is trouble in the housing market. No, we are not all going to be homeless. I will be bringing you some facts that you will not see elsewhere so stay tuned and call me if you need me. I am here to help.
Thanks for listening,
Jerry Robertson
Welcome
