Gwinnett Co. Market Update – Interesting to see the progress!!
We are experiencing the most interesting real estate market in recent history. The good news is we are seeing more and more positive data come in. Check out the charts and my take on the info below. (Click on any image for a full size one you can see.)
This one shows inventory over the last two years. It is DOWN 36% over that time. One of the big problems we have is the amount of inventory.
Home under contract during the same period has increased by 91% or almost double over its low in November of 2008. Much of that is first time home buyers getting in on the tax credit that the Feds offered to them. It is scheduled to end on 30 November but it is beginning to look like we might see an extension of that and possibly an expansion to some of the repeat buyers looking to move.
Home sold vs Under Contract is a big deal too. Lots of contracts fall out for lots of reasons. The buyer gets cold feet or finds out they don’t qualify for the loan or just change their mind. Lenders are tougher on qualifying but if you have a job and can pay back the money you borrow then you will probably get the loan you need.
I think this one is the most interesting chart in the bunch. It shows Median Sales Price of the homes sold, under contract and for sale. Since September of 2007 home prices have fallen 21% as have those under contract. Homes for sale are only 13% down. What that means is that the current market is OVER PRICED by about 8% and it is keeping some homes on the market longer than they need to be.
30 years of average home prices
Remember this chart from a few days ago?? This one shows Median Sales Price over 30 years. This reflects that 21% drop you see above AND shows you where are on the curve historically. We are about where we should be. We may be in for a little more turbulence as we see the stock of foreclosures hit the market. We may see a further decline of sales price but I don’t think so. There are more foreclosures coming but there are VERY FEW builders building anything. All the inventory that we normally see coming on line is simply not there and it will not be there for a while.
I don’t want this to get so long that you don’t have time to read it so I am going to stop for now but know that we are going to be OK and if you have specific questions or comments about the data then call me. I am here to help and I am never too busy for your referrals!!!
Thanks for listening,
Jerry Robertson
678-231-1578 Cell
Testing fb updater….. again
Automatic updates should not break the old version that used to work!!!! Just saying.
Daylight Savings Time ENDS the weekend – Fall Back!!!
Just a reminder that we are rolling our clocks back 1 hour this weekend. You should change your clock back 1 hour when you go to be on Saturday night. If you don’t plan on going to bed then do it at 2:00am. If you want to read a little history on Daylight Savings Time click here.
I will be posting some new articles later today about the market, current sales prices and conditions. Check back for some interesting info.
Thanks for Listening,
Jerry Robertson
678-231-1578
Tracking home prices
I got this from a friend and client (thanks, Bruce!!) and I thought it was just too good to keep a secret. Check out the chart. (If you click on it you’ll get a full size picture)
30 years of average home prices
It you look closely you’ll see a few things that I think are interesting. First is the Average Annual Increase at 6%. That is 6% over 30 YEARS. Second, you’ll see why it FEELS so bad over the last few years. Starting in 2002 we began to see a steeper climb of median sales prices and it continued until 2005 and then leveled off and withdrew through 2008. I am sure we are still withdrawing nationally and I expect an over correction in the 2009 numbers but from there we will see it fall back on that 6% curve that was our history.
This curve is exactly like the one I posted in this article where I charted a house purchased in 1995 in Georgia. It shows we are actually coming out of this NOW locally and seeing an increase on home values returning. In fact, this trend has continued in the second quarter data that was posted after that article was written. Locally is important to remember because we did not have the HUGE increases that show on the chart above so we did not have the HUGE decreases either. Real Estate is ALWAYS a local story!!!
I wanted to share this with you because it continues to answer the No. 1 question I still get. How is the “Market”? Which I believe is really “Are we going to be OK?”. Check out The Good News Economist article that addresses that for some more data.
The most valuable thing I can share with you is HOPE. We are coming out of this and while there is unemployment to deal with it will be OK. Don’t let this get you so discouraged you fail to see the signs of the recovery that are all around us. The National Economy is not nearly as important as your Personal Economy. If you are looking for a job, keep looking. Don’t give up. Use the time to increase your skills and knowledge. Save if you can and spend less than you make.
If you know someone facing foreclosure or needing to make a change in some other way with real estate call me. I am trained and experienced and can help. It will still be tough for a while but just remember, “This too shall pass”. It always does.
Thanks for listening,
Jerry Robertson
Testing my fb updater
Ok, I have been gone for a while but I’m back. This is a test of my fb updater to see if it works and presuming it does then we are on the way to getting the next article on.
This one will be about the appreciation curve over the last 30 years for houses. Stay tuned.
just checking to see if edits come up too
Thanks for listening,
Jerry Robertson
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