Call me to talk  about what you want and where you want to be. We will set up a free website for you that zeros in on exactly what you are looking for and it will notify you daily if a new property is on the market.

I am never too busy for your referrals so give me a call at 678-231-1578.

It’s a Good Life,
Jerry W. Robertson

Supply and demand. Let’s talk about demand first. People are living longer (64.48 years in 2000 to 76.51 in 2008), having babies (GA exceeds the USA in birthrate) and moving to Atlanta and Georgia in general. Georgia is in the top 10 nationally with a growth rate of 1.7% from 2007 to 2008 and a population estimate of 9.6 million people. Most of these people prefer to live indoors so the demand for housing is INCREASING at a good pace.

Supply is the next subject. About 12 months ago most of the financing for new construction dried up. Builders that were not well funded at that time stopped building. If you drive around you will see lots of developed subdivisions with plastic pipes sticking out of the ground. Some call them PVC graveyards. These are indicators that the builders lost funding and had to stop. Subdivision development is on a 3 year cycle. That means that it will take some time to get the construction going again once the need for housing starts increasing again.

We are beginning to see a decline in inventory of resale property. Inventory is measured in months. How many houses normally sell during a year compared to how many are available divided by 12 tells us how many months of inventory we have. 6 months is considered a balanced market or the tipping point between a buyers market and a sellers market. In 2005 we had 4.5 months of inventory. 2006 was 6.5 months and 2007 was 8.9 months. 2008 peaked at 11.2 months but some parts of the country are seeing a significant improvement now with parts of California dropping below the 6 month level. It is said that as the West Coast goes so goes the rest of the country and for housing trends I believe that is true but the numbers alone say we are doing what needs to be done to decrease inventory. Increase demand, decrease supply and you get higher prices.

My point is that we are on what appears to be the leading edge of the decline of supply and that is great news if you are thinking about buying. People like Warren Buffett, Dave Ramsey and Donald Trump say this is the best time to buy we have EVER seen in this country. If inventory declines to that 6 month point again the buyers are going to find it harder to find a great house, let alone a great deal.

There is almost no competition among buyers right now so prices are lower than the replacement costs. You have lots of choices of lots of houses in great shape (your don’t have to buy a foreclosure that has been trashed to get a great deal) and sellers are anxious to make a deal.

I am here to help find great deals and when you hear of someone that is thinking about getting into this housing market please call me (678-231-1578). I can help them find the right house at the right price and it won’t cost them anything for my services because the seller pays my fees.  I also have some great inventory myself with prices set very competitively so you can check them out by clicking here.

I am here to help answer questions too. If you want more info on anything about this market please call me anytime. I am here to tell you that what you hear on the news and read in the paper may be true but it is slanted toward the bad and there is lots of good news out there. It all depends on how you look at it. Call me if you need me. I am here to help.

Thanks for listening. It’s a Good Life!!
Jerry W. Robertson

Data sources: National Assoc. of Realtors, US Census Bureau, FMLS Statistics for Members, Kaiser State Health Facts, CIA World Fact Book

www.4080.KWRealtyGA.com is a great 3 Bedroom, 2.5 Bath home with a Master Suite on the main floor. It is in a small community with low maintenance yards and great neighbors. Just off of Peachtree Industrial Blvd at Rodgers Bridge Rd in Duluth, GA is a great place to be for your commute or just to be close to things like the Gwinnett Arena and Convention Center.

www.1804.KWRealtyGA.com is a wonderful 3 Bedroom, 2 Bath ranch on a well kept lot with trees in the back and a ‘pancake’ flat front yard and driveway. Great if you are done with the ’stairs’, looking to downsize or just want to live in a great house. Beautifully decorated and ready to move into. It is located in Lawrenceville GA 30045.

Check this out: OFHEO Price Index Map

It shows that things are not what the press would have you believe.To summarize it shows a significant decline in in only 4 states. There are slight declines in 7 states and all the rest show a modest to significant INCREASE in property values. Georgia had a 2.2% increase based on this index.  

I am not going to go into the details here but if you want to see them you can see them in the First Quarter OFHEO Index Report 2008.

Hope you had a great 4th of July holiday and got to see some great fireworks.

It’s a good life,
Jerry Robertson

Now, are all of my listings getting record showing and multiple offers? No, they are not. We are not talking about the record market of 2005 where houses sold in 45 days and the sellers had multiple offers to contend with. We are saying that I am getting a consistent number of showings with an ebb and flow that coincides with vacation schedules, etc. We are saying that good houses are getting offers and that buyers are seeing some of the best deals they ever have. This is clearly a buyers market and it is up to the sellers to be ready when the buyers come to see their offering.

If you are a buyer in one of the three top categories (first time, move up or investor) then this is YOUR market. I have been able to help some people get some great deals and there are more to be found. I see that the listings that are selling are about 10% lower in price than the seller thought he would get (based on listing price) and the ones that sell are in top condition.

It feels bad in the Atlanta market for two reasons. We have LOTS more on the market than we would like (almost 3 times the inventory) and the ‘drive by’ media reports the news with a negative slant. (i.e. Foreclosures have doubled vs. Foreclosures are at 2%, both of which are true) When I talk about this stuff I get a lot of surprised looks but the data does not lie. Remember that the news people are trying to capture eyes and ears so they can sell the attention to advertisers and bad news sells better than good news. They are not lying but they might spin it differently than you and I would.

The truth is we are not in a recession yet and we may not get into one but we are battling inflation. Gas prices are up mostly because the dollar is down (inflation again) and the Atlanta real estate market is doing pretty well compared to itself over the last few years and to other parts of the country. People are moving here everyday and most of them want to live indoors. Home prices have fallen about 7% in the Atlanta area over the last year but good houses are still selling and this is a great time to buy. If you don’t have to sell this may not be the best of times to be on the market but don’t be afraid to investigate the situation if  you are trying to move up in home. It can be a great time to get a great deal.

Let me know if I can help you with some facts and we’ll cut through the hype and get to the truth.

It’s a good life.
Jerry Robertson

There are lots of different types of mortgages and generally I would recommend you get a 15 year fixed rate with a 20% down payment and that the monthly payment would be no more than 25% of your net income. If you listen to Dave Ramsey you will know where that comes from but if not you can check him out for more info on that.

I think that knowledge is power and if you don’t know what some of the other options are out there then you might be tempted to choose one that could get you into trouble. The LIBOR index loan is one of those that I think carries way too much risk. I am sure the ’sophisticated’ borrower or lender might consider me narrow minded but I have seen too many good people trapped in a bad loan or over extended in such a way that they lose their home when bad things happen.

The concept of an index loan is not complex. Let’s talk about an index that we hear more about. The Fed Rate. That is an index. It is a rate that gets adjusted periodically and it is used to set the interest rate that banks charge each other to borrow money in the US. It is not a consumer rate but consumers watch it closely and make decisions based on it. The LIBOR index is a similar index. Check out the chart:

The LIBOR (London Inter Bank Offering Rates) index is just one of many indexes that are used to create an attractive loan when the index rates are low. That rate is beginning to drop and it tends to drop more quickly than some of the other indexes so we are starting to hear more about it now. From 2002 to 2004 the LIBOR rate was very low and that made it attractive to lots of people. But look at what it did starting about midway of 2004 and you can see why some of those people are now struggling to make payments. The rate went from just over 1% to about 5.5% very quickly and their home loans increased accordingly. They pay based on the LIBOR plus some fixed percentage (maybe 4%) so new they are paying over 9% for their home loan. This is the type of loan that we call an Adjustable Rate Mortgage (ARM) and is the subject of much wailing and gnashing of teeth today.

If you can qualify for a fixed rate loan you would never see this type of ‘adjustment’ when the economy changes. Be very careful what type of loan you get and if you have questions please call me. I am here to help you with all your real estate needs.

I would love to talk more about this with you if you have questions so don’t be afraid to ask if I can help.

 It’s a Good Life!!
Jerry Robertson

I see this stuff everyday and it is bugging me. I want to let you know what I see going on.

The 24 hour news shows tells us about the “Sub Prime” mortgage crisis. TV talking heads say we have not hit bottom yet in the real estate market. Today’s Gwinnett Daily Post says foreclosures are at an all time high. Mortgage lender radio commercials border on sensationalism. If you believe all you hear you might think we are all going down. Take heart!! I am here to tell you that it simply is not true.

The truth is that this is the 3rd best year in real estate in the last 50 years. 50 years. Since we started tracking numbers this is the 3rd best. Yes, there are areas that have been affected by this slump in the market and those places are mostly the ones that had the huge run up in prices the last few years. Florida and California are good examples of that. Florida has had some other things affect them like hurricanes that boosted the costs of taxes and insurance so they are feeling the pain in that way too. Lots of folks have put their homes on the market and that has given buyers greater choice and slowed down the market while they look. It has also affected appreciation in some areas. I am happy to say that our market has still seen an appreciation rate average over 4% for this year. Not bad considering we have almost 3 times the homes on the market over 2 years ago.

I have heard a phrase that I like about the mortgage industry and that is Lender Purification. Have there been problems? Yes, there have but I want you to know it is the part of the market that catered to those that could not afford or maybe should not have bought the house that they did. It also affects those that used their equity in their homes in ways that were perhaps less than wise. The companies that specialized in that type of loan have gotten a wake up call or perhaps have disappeared altogether. That’s purification. It’s painful but in the long run it is a great thing.

Those types of loans are sometimes referred to as Sub Prime. The problem with those loans is that they are higher risk and therefore higher cost to the consumer. Sometimes to get folks into the loan they had a ‘teaser’ rate that started out low and is now jumping up dramatically. I have heard from folks they are seeing a jump from 4% to numbers like 18%. Not a pretty picture and those people are faced with losing their homes because they can’t afford them now. With tighter standards on getting a new loan they are now unable to refinance like they were told they could. That’s what’s going on with the increase in foreclosure rates.

The problem with all of this is that some innocent people are getting hurt.

I don’t want to ramble on but I did want to see if you have family, friends or neighbors that are having a hard time and are looking for some help. I have helped several people that are in this situation and I wanted to offer my experience and some of my time. I will do my best to answer their questions. I may not have a solution personally as not everyone needs to sell a house to get out of trouble but I have other folks that I refer on a regular basis that could be of help. I have financial counselors, lenders and other resources that I trust and could be just what they need.

Call me if you know someone that I can help get through a rough time. My business is about people and caring for them when they need help.

PS. I also work with people that AREN’T in trouble so if you know someone who needs to buy or sell a home call me about them too. This is a good time to be a buyer and sellers need professional help to get the most money for their property. My number is 678-343-6879 if I can help. Call me.

It’s a Good Life!!!

Thanks,

Jerry Robertson
Keller Williams Realty
Atlanta Partners
4878 Manhattan Dr
Buford, GA 30518
678-343-6879

The fully fenced back yard is special with a custom built deck located in the back corner in a wonderfully shaded stand of trees. The side entry garage and great neighborhood makes this special. The neighborhood has a great pool, lighted tennis courts and a community pavilion that can be used for parties and gatherings.  Call me at 678-318-4984 to arrange to see it. jwr