Will Home Prices Continue to Increase?
There are many unsubstantiated theories about what is happening with home prices. From those who are worried that prices are falling (data shows this is untrue), to those who are concerned that prices are again approaching boom peaks because of “irrational exuberance” (this is also untrue as prices are not at peak levels when they are adjusted for inflation), there seems to be no shortage of opinion.
However, the increase in prices is easily explained by the theory of supply & demand. Whenever there is a limited supply of an item that is in high demand, prices increase. It is that simple. In real estate, it takes a six-month supply of existing salable inventory to maintain pricing stability. In most housing markets, anything less than six months will cause home values to appreciate and anything greater than seven months will cause prices to depreciate (see chart below).
According to the Existing Home Sales Report from the National Association of Realtors (NAR), the monthly inventory of homes for sale has been below six months for the last five years (see chart below).
Bottom Line
If buyer demand continues to outpace the current supply of existing homes for sale, prices will continue to appreciate. Nothing nefarious is taking place. It is simply the theory of supply & demand working as it should.
There is some conversation going on that a new tipping point for a balanced market is 4 months due to technology but I’m not sure I buy that yet. I’d digging into the data and reaching out to experts in the real estate industry to try and understand that idea.
I’d love to discuss this with you if you want more details. Give me a call and we’ll get on the calendar for coffee or lunch soon.
Thanks for listening,
Jerry Robertson
678-231-1578 Cell
Source: Keeping Current Matters